The complexity of implementing Brexit

One of the main themes of my blogs will be Brexit. I have largely avoided focusing on this so far. We all know in the words of PM May that "Brexit means Brexit" is her government's slogan. Yet in reality we dot not know what Brexit will be. There are so many options to consider with the trade-off between access to the single market and the control of the borders at the root of most of them. Certainly a key decision for the government will be to set out its strategy including its red lines. I shall return to these options in future blogs.

What is becoming clearer is the complexity of these negotiations. Not only will there need to be talks covering the UK's divorce from the EU, but there will have to be talks on securing a free-trade agreement with the EU, one likely for interim measures, another with the World Trade Organisation to regain full membership, some on securing free trade deals with non-EU countries and even more talks with the EU on foreign and defence policy etc.

None of these talks will be easy, yet the civil service and the three key departments of the Foreign Office, Brexit and international trade are ill-prepared. There is now talk that article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which gives us just 2 years to sort everything out before leaving the EU, may not be triggered until  late 2017, with additional problems of the French elections next May and German elections next September to be considered. Yet this would push back Brexit to late 2019 dangerously close to our own general elections in May 2020. Furthermore, such a long period of uncertainty will be damaging economically.

Thus it is imperative the new government not only  makes clear it's negotiating situation, but unifies it's own party and the nation as a whole - neither of which will be easy. It must emphasise business as usual, reassuring different sectors of the economy such as farmers and science that they will not lose out, and that EU nationals can still work here. The country should take maximum advantage of a more competitive currency and loosen fiscal policy to boost aggregate demand in these uncertain times.