Friday 5 August 2016

How is new UK PM May's policies evolving?

Theresa May has come to power being dealt a difficult and constraining hand in terms of the Brexit vote. But most indications are that she was at best a reluctant Remainer and that she believes in controls on immigration and looser ties with Europe anyway.

Her brand of Consevatism is very much pragmatic, but like Cameron, also modernising and certainly not idealistic like Mrs Thatcher who she has superficially been compared with. Though she does have two key advisers that provide idealistic input to her thinking now and when she was at the Home Office. Her stated aim is to help those that have been left behind by the UK economy's success which has partly fed on globalisation. They are mainly the white working classes, particularly in the North. There is a clear shift to the left which will do the party no harm electorally. Not only is the main opposition, Labour party, sadly for democracy, tearing itself apart, but it is shifting sharply left with policies even to the left of previous leader Ed Miliband who was soundly beaten at the previous general election. And current leader Corbyn, unlikely to be beaten by challenger Owen Smith, is seen as even more incompetent than Miliband. Indeed polls already give the Conservatives a massive 14% point lead over Labour. Furthermore the Liberal Democrats will take a generation to recover from electoral defeat, and UKIP having achieved their main objective of Brexit are squabbling over some new policies without their highly effective leader Nigel Farage, and could become sidelined like the Liberals..

So as I see it, the key changes will be greater emphasis for industrial policy, hence a new department and a commitment to rein in foreign takeovers. She dispensed with a department dedicated to climate change, reflecting reduced emphasis there. There will be a greater emphasis on reducing inequalities. so do not expect cuts in direct taxation especially corporate and income taxes but increases in infrastructure spending and generally more state intervention. Also controls on corporate pay and an emphasis on multinationals paying their "fair share" of taxes.  Expect to see less emphasis on globalisation with not only cooler ties with Europe, but also China (look at Hinkley power station being put on hold) and even the US. Commonwealth ties will likely be revived. Finally expect tough measures against crime and new grammar schools being permitted.

However, I have some concerns. Firstly an industrial policy or strategy smacks of the failed policies of  the 60s and 70s. More of this another time. .Secondly as I mentioned above the UK's rapid growth rate in comparison to its European peers over the last 30 years has been due to taking full advantage globalisation, open to foreign direct investment, to immigration, to flexible labour markets, to free trade, to low taxation and so on. But at this difficult time we should be careful not to abandon these things or to permanently increase state spending when we are left with a massive government debt burden following the excesses of previous Labour administrations and the impact of the global financial crisis. More equality could mean much less wealth for every one, lower growth and ever rising government debt.


3 comments:

  1. Very important word in the English language Richard Wiseman! Hope to hear more...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Very important word in the English language Richard Wiseman! Hope to hear more...

    ReplyDelete